TAYLOR SWIFT PATIENT ZERO TIPPED TO END ELLA LANGLEY'S RECORD 23-WEEK HOT 100 RUN

Taylor Swift's "Patient Zero" is the overwhelming favorite to debut at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated October 10 — a debut that would end Ella Langley's historic 23-week run at the top with "Choosin' Texas". Released Friday, September 25 via Republic Records as the lead single from The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore, the song carries 95% odds of opening at No. 1 according to prediction-market data — setting up the biggest chart battle of the year.

Image: Taylor Swift / Republic Records (official album artwork)

The Odds

Prediction market Kalshi is pricing a changing of the guard. As of September 25, traders give "Patient Zero" a 98% chance of dethroning "Choosin' Texas" — and 95% odds that it debuts at No. 1 on the Hot 100 chart dated October 10. These are market predictions, not results, but the signal is overwhelming.

Swift is loading the single for a chart assault. Three CD single versions — original, acoustic and piano — went on sale on her website at $3.99 each, announced September 22 after a website countdown that followed an Emmys sketch tease. And the self-directed "Patient Zero" video, starring Dakota Johnson and Colin Farrell and shot by Oscar winner Emmanuel Lubezki, premiered at the 2026 MTV VMAs on September 27 — a major visibility boost heading into the song's first tracking week.

The Record at Stake

"Choosin' Texas" has spent 23 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 — the longest-running No. 1 in the chart's history. According to reports from the Associated Press, the song passed Mariah Carey's 22-week record with "All I Want for Christmas Is You" on September 22, 2026. The AP also reports 911 million on-demand streams in the US and 1.26 billion globally, while Luminate data names it the most-streamed US song of the first half of 2026.

History Between Them

This would not be the first time Swift has ended a Langley run at the summit: her single "Opalite" already knocked "Choosin' Texas" off No. 1 once this year, before Langley reclaimed the top spot. Earlier, Swift's "I Knew It, I Knew You" debuted at Hot 100 No. 1 in June 2026 and spent its first two weeks on top. If "Patient Zero" opens at No. 1 as tipped, it would become her 16th Hot 100 No. 1.

Official Video

Watch the official "Patient Zero" video on Taylor Swift's YouTube channel.

Stay tuned — the Hot 100 chart dated October 10 will show whether the odds were right.